Seattle’s Kelenic?

[btdart20]

Could he be a trade target?  Do we want him?  Has Seattle soured on him?  Haniger will be a FA.  Julio, Dylan Moore, and Kyle Lewis are there long term.  Winker is there in 2023.

Will Kelenic ever hit ML pitching?  I think so.

[oriole]

I highly doubt they’d give up on him yet…he’s still very young. In order to get him it would have to be a lot. Prob one of our top 5 guys, a major league piece, and a lower level piece or two. 

[Jim'sKid26]

So this guy has an interesting development curve. In 2019, age 19, he plays 50 games at low A ball. Then 46 games at A+ ball and at both stops he hits very well. Then the move him at the end of the year to AA for 19 games and he does OK. Then COVID takes away 2020 for him. I don't know what the Mariners did for their prospects during COVID but whatever happened he did not benefit from the break. 

In 2021, age 21,  he plays 30 games at in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) and posts a .320/.392/.624 with 9 HRs and he is promoted to MLB and struggles. In 93 games he posts .181/.265/.350 with 14 HRs. Iso was .169.

In 2022, age 22, he is back at AAA for 86 games and does well again, .295/.365/.557 with 18 HRs. Then back at MLB level for 54 games in a pennant race and stinks it up again, .121/.241/.313 with 7 HRs.

Now the PCL is a notoriously good hitters league compared to the International league. Are the PCL numbers making him look better than he actually is? His 2 trips to the PCL he had BABIP of .323 and .339. I think it will take a bit more data to explain his MLB difficulties. He's a bit of an enigma.

[sportsfan8703]

This would be a good move for a rebuilding club. We’re not a rebuilding club anymore. We’re in direct competition with SEA for a playoff spot. We should not be trading them anything that helps them. 
 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This would be a good move for a rebuilding club. We’re not a rebuilding club anymore. We’re in direct competition with SEA for a playoff spot. We should not be trading them anything that helps them. 
 

 

I find this line of thought remarkably short sighted. At some point the O's will not be selecting in the first 5-10 positions in the draft and will need to be as creative as possible with their endeavors at talent acquisition. Kelenic is an intriguing player who was drafted at #6 overall for a reason. He has talent. Now can the O's, or any other team, find the key that unlocks his talent? This is, of course, the bottom line of this issue.

 

However, good teams should be on the look out for talent wherever and whenever it presents itself. Not trading with Seattle because they are in direct competition with them for a playoff spot is just nonsensical. Of course your trade with them. If they have available talent you need to make your club better, of course you trade with them. In fact, you trade with any team who has available talent that makes your club better. 

[RZNJ]

I would have to think long and hard before I would even trade someone like Connor Norby straight up for Kelenic.  Kelenic has got 500 ML AB’s at a sub 600 OPS.   How long does Seattle stick with him?   
 

If Kelenic starts off in Seattle next year and doesn’t come around, his value craters.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would have to think long and hard before I would even trade someone like Connor Norby straight up for Kelenic.  Kelenic has got 500 ML AB’s at a sub 600 OPS.   How long does Seattle stick with him?   
 

If Kelenic starts off in Seattle next year and doesn’t come around, his value craters.

 Not sure it can go that much lower.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

 

Now the PCL is a notoriously good hitters league compared to the International league. Are the PCL numbers making him look better than he actually is? His 2 trips to the PCL he had BABIP of .323 and .339. I think it will take a bit more data to explain his MLB difficulties. He's a bit of an enigma.

I think there is room for improvement with Kelenic, but the PCL is making this guy look better than he really is as a hitter.

Kelenic put up a .922 OPS at AAA ball last season, but the league average OPS for the PCL was .804 in 2022. MLB league average OPS was .706 this past season, so Kelenic is definitely taking a hit when it comes to his MLB stats.

The question is Kelenic a guy who can mash AAA pitching, but can't make the adjustment to MLB level pitching or is it just a slow start to his career. 

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

 

Now the PCL is a notoriously good hitters league compared to the International league. Are the PCL numbers making him look better than he actually is? His 2 trips to the PCL he had BABIP of .323 and .339. I think it will take a bit more data to explain his MLB difficulties. He's a bit of an enigma.

PCL/AAA West compared to IL/AAA East

2022: .804 OPS vs. .750

2021: .810 OPS vs. .743

So yes, the hitting environment in the PCL inflates Kelenic’s AAA numbers.

Still, the thing that atands out to me is Kelenic’s K rate vs. major league pitching.  

2022: 33.7% vs. 20.8% in the minors

2021: 28.1% vs. 15.4.% in the minors

It’s not a good sign that Kelenic’s K% increased a lot in 2022 in both the majors and the minors.  

I think @oriole is way off base in term of what it would cost to get him.  No, I wouldn’t give up on him at age 22, but he’s lost a lot of shine.   I’d rather have Cowser at this point.  


 

[Jim'sKid26]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

PCL/AAA West compared to IL/AAA East

2022: .804 OPS vs. .750

2021: .810 OPS vs. .743

So yes, the hitting environment in the PCL inflates Kelenic’s AAA numbers.

Still, the thing that atands out to me is Kelenic’s K rate vs. major league pitching.  

2022: 33.7% vs. 20.8% in the minors

2021: 28.1% vs. 15.4.% in the minors

It’s not a good sign that Kelenic’s K% increased a lot in 2022 in both the majors and the minors.  

I think @oriole is way off base in term of what it would cost to get him.  No, I wouldn’t give up on him at age 22, but he’s lost a lot of shine.   I’d rather have Cowser at this point.  


 

So the big question is why does he strike out so much in MLB? I am suspicious its an inability to handle breaking pitches as opposed to lack of bat speed or inability to handle velocity. But I just don't know. The advanced metrics about swing decisions are not available, at least I can't find them, on his minor league experience. Maybe someone who has seen him play a lot can enlighten us.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So the big question is why does he strike out so much in MLB? I am suspicious its an inability to handle breaking pitches as opposed to lack of bat speed or inability to handle velocity. But I just don't know. The advanced metrics about swing decisions are not available, at least I can't find them, on his minor league experience. Maybe someone who has seen him play a lot can enlighten us.

Fangrapghs does have splits by type of pitch.  Kelenic was pretty inept against every type of pitch except sinkers (.294 BA), but was particularity feeble against sliders and curves (.056 on each).   

[Jim'sKid26]

Just now, Frobby said:

Fangrapghs does have splits by type of pitch.  Kelenic was pretty inept against every type of pitch except sinkers (.294 BA), but was particularity feeble against sliders and curves (.056 on each).   

Right, I saw that too but there is little to allow a comparison to his minor league stats. For example is he swinging at strikes in the strike zone and missing them? Is he getting beat up in the strike zone with premium velocity? Does he have a pronounced upper cut swing that can be tweaked? 

Also, we are focusing on offense. Is he a good defender? If he can play and contribute in CF that would allow for a little less offensive prowess.

[Jammer7]

It could be several things. The article in the link below talks about some of the mental issues he may have had earlier this season.

The biggest thing for young guys is confidence, and realizing who they are and how they can fit in MLB. The PCL creates false expectations, and confidence can wane quickly if the player can’t replicate those results.

I would doubt they are looking to move him at just 23 years of age. Maybe in the right deal that makes sense for both teams, but I think he just needs time and a redefined expectation of success from himself. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jarred-kelenic-a-key-part-to-mariners-offense

[jamalshw]

Kelenic has been bad in 558 PA, like really bad. He's been 2 wins below replacement level in 147 major league games. That take a ton of luster off him since his consensus top-10 ranking going into 2021. 

If the Mariners are so down on him that they're selling at pennies on the dollar, I'm interested, but the Orioles don't need to hope and pray to catch lightning in a bottle so if the Mariners are looking for a price that's along would suggest Kelenic is still a high-upside "prospect", then I'm not interested at all. And, I would expect the Mariners to still want a solid prospect back. In fact, he was in each postseason game for the Mariners this year tells you they haven't completely written him off. If that were the case, he would have been off the roster for those series...or at least buried on the bench as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. But no, he got 18 plate appearances and while he struck out 11 times and managed just two hits, it's still telling what the team thinks of him by the fact they continued to run him out there. 

[health55]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:44 PM, RZNJ said:

I would have to think long and hard before I would even trade someone like Connor Norby straight up for Kelenic.  Kelenic has got 500 ML AB’s at a sub 600 OPS.   How long does Seattle stick with him?   
 

If Kelenic starts off in Seattle next year and doesn’t come around, his value craters.

In a trade of Connor Norby to Seattle, would the Orioles consider a different former No. 6 draft pick in righthander Emerson Hancock, who is only six weeks older than Jarred Kelenic?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105017/

Readers at Baseball Trade Values like the proposed trade for the Orioles.