Tillman Scorching Start- 8/26

[hoosiers]

I guess there's something to getting a taste of ML life, but I'd prefer to have the players forcing their way onto the the ML scene. Tillman has been very good, but put it next to what Kershaw and Price did at AA this year and it isn't really close. I'd like to see more development before considering a ML promotion.

Doesn't the system have a bunch of arms that need to be decided upon, anyway? I'd want to see more of Penn/Olson/Liz and eventually Patton/Albers. If BAL really needs arms, I'd rather send Bergeson up -- he won't dominate but he'll throw strikes and you can start figuring out whether his average stuff will play at the ML level (playing-up due to command).

I agree there are other factors in play and that there are other pitchers who may not have Tillman's talent but may deserve a chance first.

The two questions, IMO, are :

What is best for Tillman? This leads to a discussion whether he is ready to face ML batters or should he spend time in AAA next year. Pitchers get promoted from AA all the time to the majors and given the stats Tillman is producing, I do not see why, on the surface, Tillman would struggle so much in the majors. If Tillman is ready, he should get a look in camp next year. If he does have as much to work on as Stotle implies, then Tillman should get a September call up and face major league hitters to see what he has to work on.

The second question is - what is best for the organization? I agree we should give continued looks to Olson, Liz and Penn and soon Bergesen. I think it is debateable how much these prospects deserve additional looks before Tillman. Why should Tillman be considered so far behind Liz and Olson in terms of "looks"? Tillman is pitching as well or better than Liz did in AA last year and Liz received major league looks in September.

I trust the Os FO will determine a good course, but given Tillman's success in AA, I find it difficult to believe the course they will choose will be AAA for a large portion of next season and time in the ML bp after that.

[Mackus]

I trust the Os FO will determine a good course, but given Tillman's success in AA, I find it difficult to believe the course they will choose will be AAA for a large portion of next season and time in the ML bp after that.

I'll be shocked if Tillman spends more time in Baltimore next season than he does at Norfolk.

I think its more likely that he doesn't get called up at all than he gets called up before June.

I think he'll get a few starts in September and that will be it.

[hoosiers]

I'll be shocked if Tillman spends more time in Baltimore next season than he does at Norfolk.

I think its more likely that he doesn't get called up at all than he gets called up before June.

I think he'll get a few starts in September and that will be it.

You know, I do not want to rush anyone, but it is not necessary to treat Tillman with kid gloves.

Everyone is putting him on a much slower pace than Loewen, Liz and Olson (our three most recent quality pitching prospects) were on once they started at AA. Given Tillman's stats at AA, I question why someone would design such a deliberately slow course to the majors for the the most advanced pitcher of this foursome (especially since Tillman is the youngest of this bunch and could show the most offseason improvement in terms of strength, maturity and stuff).

[Mackus]

You know, I do not want to rush anyone, but it is not necessary to treat Tillman with kid gloves.

Everyone is putting him on a much slower pace than Loewen, Liz and Olson (our three most recent quality pitching prospects) were on once they started at AA. Given Tillman's stats at AA, I question why someone would design such a deliberately slow course to the majors for the the most advanced pitcher of this foursome (especially since Tillman is the youngest of this bunch and could show the most offseason improvement in terms of strength, maturity and stuff).

Thats what I think will happen with him.

If it were my decision, he starts in Norfolk and if he's having similar success, and going deep into games, I'd bring him up as early as June, but more likely July.

[Stotle]

I agree there are other factors in play and that there are other pitchers who may not have Tillman's talent but may deserve a chance first.

The two questions, IMO, are :

What is best for Tillman? This leads to a discussion whether he is ready to face ML batters or should he spend time in AAA next year. Pitchers get promoted from AA all the time to the majors and given the stats Tillman is producing, I do not see why, on the surface, Tillman would struggle so much in the majors. If Tillman is ready, he should get a look in camp next year. If he does have as much to work on as Stotle implies, then Tillman should get a September call up and face major league hitters to see what he has to work on.

The second question is - what is best for the organization? I agree we should give continued looks to Olson, Liz and Penn and soon Bergesen. I think it is debateable how much these prospects deserve additional looks before Tillman. Why should Tillman be considered so far behind Liz and Olson in terms of "looks"? Tillman is pitching as well or better than Liz did in AA last year and Liz received major league looks in September.

I trust the Os FO will determine a good course, but given Tillman's success in AA, I find it difficult to believe the course they will choose will be AAA for a large portion of next season and time in the ML bp after that.

I think his lack of command in the strikezone would lead to him getting knocked around a fair amount in the majors right now.

It isn't about "deserving" more looks (Penn/Liz/Olson), but you are on the clock as far as making decisions on these guys. Giving Tillman those looks has two negative effects: 1) I don't think Tillman is in a position to succeed at the ML-level right now, and 2) you're going to have to make a decision on whether or not Olson/Liz/Penn are pieces you want around in the future and this is limiting your opportunities to assess.

Liz was promoted prematurely (control AND command issues) and we see how well that has worked.

[hoosiers]

Thats what I think will happen with him.

If it were my decision, he starts in Norfolk and if he's having similar success, and going deep into games, I'd bring him up as early as June, but more likely July.

Then I ask you, why put him on a slower pace to get to the majors from the first day at AA than Loewen, Liz and Olson? Why?

Why not look at Tillman as a prospect by himself and determine if he has major league quality stuff right now? I have not seen Tillman pitch, but I see the stats and I see plenty of reports in national publications, and here, and I think it is silly to post that, today, given a high quality season at AA, that Tillman may be at least a year (as Stotle posted) from getting a major league start.

IMO, he should get a pretty long look in camp next year and, if it is determined he has stuff to work on, then send him to AAA. I am just confounded by the opinion that the guy who has pitched as well or better than Loewen, Olson and Liz at AA should take such a longer route to the majors.

[SJA]

Everyone is putting him on a much slower pace than Loewen, Liz and Olson (our three most recent quality pitching prospects) were on once they started at AA. Given Tillman's stats at AA, I question why someone would design such a deliberately slow course to the majors for the the most advanced pitcher of this foursome (especially since Tillman is the youngest of this bunch and could show the most offseason improvement in terms of strength, maturity and stuff).

In answer to your question, maybe you should consider the results of the three that you are comparing him. Not saying that he's even with them talent-wise, but it does lend credence to the philosphy of making players force their way up.

If he does have as much to work on as Stotle implies, then Tillman should get a September call up and face major league hitters to see what he has to work on.

But is that what's best for Tillman?! If he truly has stuff to work on, it's probably not a good thing psychologically to have him come the majors and get hit hard. Also, if he does have stuff to work on, I would hope that our minor league coaches (both Coach Griffin and the rovers) are competent enough to assess what he needs to work on.

[Mackus]

Then I ask you, why put him on a slower pace to get to the majors from the first day at AA than Loewen, Liz and Olson? Why?

Loewen and Liz were obviously rushed. I'd like to move Tillman at a pace that isn't harmful to his development, as crazy as that might sound.

He's considerably younger than Olson was, and Olson was further developed from being a college pitcher. He was able to move a lot quicker than Tillman.

Tillman's still gonna make his MLB debut at 21 and be in a rotation full-time at 22. Thats flying through the system. No need to rush him if he isn't ready, and I think given his command issues that its easy to see he isn't quite ready yet.

[Stotle]

You know, I do not want to rush anyone, but it is not necessary to treat Tillman with kid gloves.

Everyone is putting him on a much slower pace than Loewen, Liz and Olson (our three most recent quality pitching prospects) were on once they started at AA. Given Tillman's stats at AA, I question why someone would design such a deliberately slow course to the majors for the the most advanced pitcher of this foursome (especially since Tillman is the youngest of this bunch and could show the most offseason improvement in terms of strength, maturity and stuff).

Olson was 23 before he got called up and had 22 starts at AAA.

Liz was not ready to be called up and I think everyone agrees. He had both control and command issues -- as a result ML hitters mash his stuff up in the zone. Seeing this first hand, why promote Tillman before he has fixed this exact same problem?

Liz (AA) - 137 IP, 70 BB, 161 SO, 3.62/1.25

Tillman (AA) - 130 IP, 61 BB, 147 SO, 3.17/1.31

Pretty darn close, no? Why not let the 20 year old fix some stuff before tossing him into the fire?

[Stotle]

Then I ask you, why put him on a slower pace to get to the majors from the first day at AA than Loewen, Liz and Olson? Why?

Why not look at Tillman as a prospect by himself and determine if he has major league quality stuff right now? I have not seen Tillman pitch, but I see the stats and I see plenty of reports in national publications, and here, and I think it is silly to post that, today, given a high quality season at AA, that Tillman may be at least a year (as Stotle posted) from getting a major league start.

IMO, he should get a pretty long look in camp next year and, if it is determined he has stuff to work on, then send him to AAA. I am just confounded by the opinion that the guy who has pitched as well or better than Loewen, Olson and Liz at AA should take such a longer route to the majors.

Tillman knows what he has to work on -- fastball command and maybe some more fine-tuning on his secondary stuff. Why start his service clock to confirm this? Think about Adenhart after he got called-up prematurely, lost his confidence and then fell apart back in AAA. I don't see any legitimate reason to call Tillman up this year or next year until he forces his way onto the ML team. It isn't an insult to have a 21 year old spend a year in AAA. If he is absolutely filthy (which he was and wasn't at the same time in AA this year) and you have a hole in the rotation at some point next year, then you give him a look.

[Tony-OH]

Tillman knows what he has to work on -- fastball command and maybe some more fine-tuning on his secondary stuff. Why start his service clock to confirm this? Think about Adenhart after he got called-up prematurely, lost his confidence and then fell apart back in AAA. I don't see any legitimate reason to call Tillman up this year or next year until he forces his way onto the ML team. It isn't an insult to have a 21 year old spend a year in AAA. If he is absolutely filthy (which he was and wasn't at the same time in AA this year) and you have a hole in the rotation at some point next year, then you give him a look.

Thanks for saving me some typing.

[Frobby]

Olson was 23 before he got called up and had 22 starts at AAA.

Liz was not ready to be called up and I think everyone agrees. He had both control and command issues -- as a result ML hitters mash his stuff up in the zone. Seeing this first hand, why promote Tillman before he has fixed this exact same problem?

Liz (AA) - 137 IP, 70 BB, 161 SO, 3.62/1.25

Tillman (AA) - 130 IP, 61 BB, 147 SO, 3.17/1.31

Pretty darn close, no? Why not let the 20 year old fix some stuff before tossing him into the fire?

Exactly right. Also, Tillman's not prepared to go deep in games - he's averaging less than 5 IP per start. He needs a good part of 2009 to refine his command and learn to work deeper into games.

[Frobby]

Thanks for saving me some typing.

So Tony, are we going to get your report on last night?

[Sports Guy]

I have no issue with the way they are handling Tillman...He is just so young.

If he were getting deeper into games and showing better command, I would call for him to be here right now.

But the fact is he isn't and since he is only 20, there is no rush with him.

Other guys in the past, like Liz for example, were old for AA and it was time to see them against tougher competition.

[Enjoy Terror]

Logic would dictate that Tillman at 20 years old, and Liz, Burres and Olson at 23-28 years old, there is plenty of time in the future to evaluate Tillman in the MLB and less time to evaluate the older three. There will come a point when Bergesen and Hernandez and Berken simply can't be held down any longer in the minors, and you have to make a decision: is my next start going to be from Burres, Liz or Olson OR from Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken?

Once Burres Liz and Olson stop being forerunners to get starts (meaning that their ship sails on them), that's when they a) get traded or b) wind up as AAAA journeymen to make occasional starts with the big league club.

Anyway, Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz will likely see callups once they figure out who of Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez don't stick. I guess a worst/best case scenario is that all six stick and you have to cut one, or trade Guthrie.