Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[Jim'sKid26]

At least for one day Framber did miss a few bats....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/not-to-be-overshadowed-by-the-deadline-framber-valdez-spins-a-no-hitter/

 

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Judging someone on their "big moments" seems as silly was valuing pitchers based on their win totals. Who's to say other players, if given the opportunity, wouldn't also have big moments? 

It is silly.  

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Burnes just said that he really isn't interested in a trade and sign type of situation. He's going to be a FA unless someone drastically overpays for him.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Actually, I thought I saw his whiff% was in the 40s

He’s right about average. His swing stR% right around average. Same with the shift percentage. 
 

Either way, he doesn’t miss enough bats for me especially when talking about total cost.

I have to say that I also disagree with you. He's a LHSP with elite breaking stuff who keeps the ball on the ground. 

His combination of CB, CH and cutter have a whiff% of 39.7, 31.1 and 44.4 respectively with putaway% of 26.9, 26.9 and 29.4. That some elite breaking stuff. 

Yes he gets hit on his 2SFB and that is his Achilles heel. But to say he doesn't miss enough bats is a bit nonsensical. He had 200 Ks in 198 IP. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I have to say that I also disagree with you. He's a LHSP with elite breaking stuff who keeps the ball on the ground. 

His combination of CB, CH and cutter have a whiff% of 39.7, 31.1 and 44.4 respectively with putaway% of 26.9, 26.9 and 29.4. That some elite breaking stuff. 

Yes he gets hit on his 2SFB and that is his Achilles heel. But to say he doesn't miss enough bats is a bit nonsensical. He had 200 Ks in 198 IP. 

 

The stats are what they are. You can say he’s missing enough bats with the rest of his profile and that’s fine but it’s not fine for me.. considering the totality of his cost, his age and what else is available.

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Jim'sKid26]

This is an interesting discussion of where the Astros are with regard to the Luxury tax and needing to lighten the load. If Valdez is a target, this might work in the O's favor.

https://theathletic.com/5100398/2023/11/30/framber-valdez-trade-scenarios-astros/

 

[HakunaSakata]

Can someone please explain to me why my Framber Valdez / Johnny Cueto comp isn't spot on? They even have a similar build (i.e., Bartolo Colon-esque) and peak Cueto was actually better than Valdez. What in Valdez's pitching profile sugggest that he'll age better than Cueto, who basically dropped off a cliff after he turned 30? And Cueto, just like Valdez, consistently outperformed his expected stats most seasons. 

Again, I'm not arguing that Valdez hasn't been a good pitcher, but I can't see how a GM who heavily emphasizes and values advanced/underlying statisitcs would choose an older more expensive Valdez over a younger cheaper Cease. Now if they're the same price prospect wise that would change things, but I don't think they will be. 

 

[HakunaSakata]

53 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I have to say that I also disagree with you. He's a LHSP with elite breaking stuff who keeps the ball on the ground. 

His combination of CB, CH and cutter have a whiff% of 39.7, 31.1 and 44.4 respectively with putaway% of 26.9, 26.9 and 29.4. That some elite breaking stuff. 

Yes he gets hit on his 2SFB and that is his Achilles heel. But to say he doesn't miss enough bats is a bit nonsensical. He had 200 Ks in 198 IP. 

It's not nonsensical at all. For the majority of Valdez's career he's had a bad WHIP, while at the same time maintaining a pretty solid walk rate. So if the W isn't inflatting his WHIP then it's the H (hits), which means he's not missing enough bats. 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

The stats are what they are. You can say he’s missing enough bats with the rest of his profile and that’s fine but it’s not fine for me.. considering the totality of his cost, his age and what else is available.

 

But his fWAR was 4.3!  Aren't you the guy that is always saying fWAR is the best gauge for pitchers?  I totally disagree, btw, but if you are going to use fWAR to claim Cease is so great, at least be consistent.  It sure seems like you've either got to finally admit that fWAR is just a plain bad stat for pitchers, or you've got to back off of your praise of Cease a bit.

[RZNJ]

55 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Can someone please explain to me why my Framber Valdez / Johnny Cueto comp isn't spot on? They even have a similar build (i.e., Bartolo Colon-esque) and peak Cueto was actually better than Valdez. What in Valdez's pitching profile sugggest that he'll age better than Cueto, who basically dropped off a cliff after he turned 30? And Cueto, just like Valdez, consistently outperformed his expected stats most seasons. 

Again, I'm not arguing that Valdez hasn't been a good pitcher, but I can't see how a GM who heavily emphasizes and values advanced/underlying statisitcs would choose an older more expensive Valdez over a younger cheaper Cease. Now if they're the same price prospect wise that would change things, but I don't think they will be. 

 

Is your theory regarding Valdez based on ONE other pitcher with the same body type?

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Number5 said:

But his fWAR was 4.3!  Aren't you the guy that is always saying fWAR is the best gauge for pitchers?  I totally disagree, btw, but if you are going to use fWAR to claim Cease is so great, at least be consistent.  It sure seems like you've either got to finally admit that fWAR is just a plain bad stat for pitchers, or you've got to back off of your praise of Cease a bit.

This is a pretty poor response.

First of all, I never said he wasn’t good and if I did say that, it would be a shot at fWaR but since I didn’t, fWAR has zero to do with this.

Secondly, my issue is that I don’t like him as much going forward when you talk about all the cost associated with him and knowing what else we could trade for.

I also don’t care what his fWAR was in 2023…I care about what it will be the next 2 years and he has some red flags in his stats that bother me.

[Just Regular]

Framber Valdez for me has a distinctive niche - he's basically Zach Britton who could handle the 200 IP workload.

Lefty sinkers and a zillion groundballs.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not nonsensical at all. For the majority of Valdez's career he's had a bad WHIP, while at the same time maintaining a pretty solid walk rate. So if the W isn't inflatting his WHIP then it's the H (hits), which means he's not missing enough bats. 

Cease’s WHIP was 1.4 last year, 1.3 for his career.   Valdez was 1.1.  last year and 1.2 for his career.   So, you’re arguing that Cease is the better target but using WHIP to suggest Valdez isn’t that good.

[Number5]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

This is a pretty poor response.

First of all, I never said he wasn’t good and if I did say that, it would be a shot at fWaR but since I didn’t, fWAR has zero to do with this.

Secondly, my issue is that I don’t like him as much going forward when you talk about all the cost associated with him and knowing what else we could trade for.

I also don’t care what his fWAR was in 2023…I care about what it will be the next 2 years and he has some red flags in his stats that bother me.

Fangraphs and Steamer Projected fWAR for Valdez 2024 is 4.1,  You have used fWAR to support your over-the-top desire for Cease 7,249 times.  You have mentioned fWAR  in regards to Valdez exactly zero times.  Your inconsistency is obvious.  But, again, it is typical for you to label my pointing this out as being "poor."   I do agree that fWAR should have zero to do with it, as it is simply a terrible stat for pitchers, but you are the one that claims it is a meaningful stat, and cite it whenever it suits your purpose.  You seem to have blinders on for Cease.  They're both good pitchers.  My preference between the two would be Valdez, largely due to his left-handedness and superior 2023.  Both come with 2 years of control.  Obviously, prospect cost would be a major factor in making a decision between the two.

[Jim'sKid26]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is your theory regarding Valdez based on ONE other pitcher with the same body type?

Maybe to him they all look alike? Isn't Cueto right handed? 

Cueto throws 6 pitches but relies primarily on a 4SFB (34.4%) and a SL (23.5%). Valdez doesn't throw either of those pitches. It doesn't make a lot of sense to compare them when they are completely different pitchers.