The Big 12 may be doomed

[Birds of B'more]

The rumors are still not settled how it will all play out. Among the rumors, the Pac-10 may also raid the MWC for Utah and BYU. In turn, the Big 12 is trying to fight back by offering a spot to TCU if Missouri goes to the Big 10.

Last word out of Nebraska is they don't want anything to do with the Big 10.

Texas will not move without Tech, A&M and Baylor to either the Pac-10 or Big-10, unless they get to bring their neighbors.

The MWC is looking to add Boise State, and one columnist here made a great case for Colorado moving to the MWC, instead of the Pac-10.

Big 12 isn't dead yet, and mainly because it looks like Nebraska will stay. This hour at least. The deadline from the conference to both Mizzou and Nebraska is Friday. Although I've heard that deadline could move out to June 15.

Either way, some changes coming, and I'm not sure I like super-duper conferences. More rivalries lost than gained in most cases, and additional travel for student athletes seems somewhat off, if the focus is supposed to include an education.

-Don

The Pac 10 has no interest at all in BYU. 1) They don't want the scheduling headache because BYU won't play sports on Sunday. 2) BYU doesn't fit in with the rest of the conference academically because they are not a research institution. And 3) The conference isn't interested in taking a religious affiliated school (although they apparently will make an exception for Baylor if forced to take them to get the other Texas schools).

I wouldn't say Nebraska has no interest at all in the Big 10. They certainly have to be interested in the money. But if they think the Big 12 can come close to what the Big 10 does in revenues, then that might be enough to keep them from giving up their long-time rivalries. Plus, unless they get some indication within the next week or 2 that the Big 10 definitely wants to take them, it's way too risky. But make no mistake, Tom Osborne has no love whatsoever for Texas and would not shed any tears over leaving them behind.

Colorado could end up getting screwed. They are obviously among the Pac-10s first choices. But because Texas is the crown jewel in the expansion derby, if the Pac 10 is forced to ditch Colorado for Baylor because some politicians in Texas played hardball, it'll happen. I mentioned before that if they add Boise St, then the MWC could end up getting an automatic BCS bid soon. In that case, the MWC might be a good landing place for Colorado and the Kansas schools. But if they don't get and automatic BCS bid, then I see no way where the MWC would be an improvement over the Pac 10....although there may not be a better option available.

[Orioles West]

The Pac 10 has no interest at all in BYU. 1) They don't want the scheduling headache because BYU won't play sports on Sunday. 2) BYU doesn't fit in with the rest of the conference academically because they are not a research institution. And 3) The conference isn't interested in taking a religious affiliated school (although they apparently will make an exception for Baylor if forced to take them to get the other Texas schools).

I wouldn't say Nebraska has no interest at all in the Big 10. They certainly have to be interested in the money. But if they think the Big 12 can come close to what the Big 10 does in revenues' date=' then that might be enough to keep them from giving up their long-time rivalries. Plus, unless they get some indication within the next week or 2 that the Big 10 definitely wants to take them, it's way too risky. But make no mistake, Tom Osborne has no love whatsoever for Texas and would not shed any tears over leaving them behind.

Colorado could end up getting screwed. They are obviously among the Pac-10s first choices. But because Texas is the crown jewel in the expansion derby, if the Pac 10 is forced to ditch Colorado for Baylor because some politicians in Texas played hardball, it'll happen. I mentioned before that if they add Boise St, then the MWC could end up getting an automatic BCS bid soon. In that case, the MWC might be a good landing place for Colorado and the Kansas schools. But if they don't get and automatic BCS bid, then I see no way where the MWC would be an improvement over the Pac 10....although there may not be a better option available.[/quote']

Depending on the Texas cabal, I still think the Pac-10 would take BYU, despite their preferences. If they would make the exception for Baylor due to greed, I think they would do the same for BYU. It is a decent following and a school that travels better than most. As a sports reporter covering the original WAC (BYU, Utah, AFA, Wyoming, CSU, New Mexico, etc), I recall the Pac-10 very willing to drop their requirements in the late 90's to pick up BYU and Colorado at one point.

That aside, I agree the Texas bloc of schools is the priority, and they are talking now of adding just four teams, instead of the early rumored six teams.

It could all change five more times before next Friday. Osborne is sure talking like he wants the Big-12 to survive, and he has to know he is a key to that survival. I wonder if he wants to make sure Texas is gone first, rather than answer the current deadline?

Back to the MWC, if they add Colorado and Boise State, and don't lose Utah and TCU, they should be able to garner the coveted automatic bid.

Fun stuff, but it makes my head spin.

-Don

[Majin Buu]

The Pac 10 has no interest at all in BYU. 1) They don't want the scheduling headache because BYU won't play sports on Sunday. 2) BYU doesn't fit in with the rest of the conference academically because they are not a research institution. And 3) The conference isn't interested in taking a religious affiliated school (although they apparently will make an exception for Baylor if forced to take them to get the other Texas schools).

I wouldn't say Nebraska has no interest at all in the Big 10. They certainly have to be interested in the money. But if they think the Big 12 can come close to what the Big 10 does in revenues' date=' then that might be enough to keep them from giving up their long-time rivalries. Plus, unless they get some indication within the next week or 2 that the Big 10 definitely wants to take them, it's way too risky. But make no mistake, Tom Osborne has no love whatsoever for Texas and would not shed any tears over leaving them behind.

Colorado could end up getting screwed. They are obviously among the Pac-10s first choices. But because Texas is the crown jewel in the expansion derby, if the Pac 10 is forced to ditch Colorado for Baylor because some politicians in Texas played hardball, it'll happen. I mentioned before that if they add Boise St, then the MWC could end up getting an automatic BCS bid soon. In that case, the MWC might be a good landing place for Colorado and the Kansas schools. But if they don't get and automatic BCS bid, then I see no way where the MWC would be an improvement over the Pac 10....although there may not be a better option available.[/quote']

One thing for sure is that a shoe may drop this week with Beebe's ultimatum and the Mountain West possibly adding Bosie State. Also, has anyone considered that with 16 and 18 conf. returning there will maybe be a push for expanded conf. playoffs? With fewer and larger conf. the NCAA would be virtually powerless to stop.

[Birds of B'more]

One thing for sure is that a shoe may drop this week with Beebe's ultimatum and the Mountain West possibly adding Bosie State. Also, has anyone considered that with 16 and 18 conf. returning there will maybe be a push for expanded conf. playoffs? With fewer and larger conf. the NCAA would be virtually powerless to stop.

The thought is that four 16-team conferences and a breakaway from the NCAA would lead to an implementation of a sort of playoff system. Basically, the conference championship games would act as quarterfinals, with the 4 conference winners moving on to a Final Four. But it would still be far from ideal, IMO. First, only 64 of 120 Division IA teams would ever be eligible. Your Boise States, Utah's and TCU's would still be left out....even more so than now. Second, I'd say more often than not you won't have the Top 8 teams among the 64 competing either. Especially if one conference has two or three Top 10 ranked teams while another doesn't have a single one. In this scenario, the rankings would be irrelevant and it would be all about your conference record.

[Majin Buu]

The thought is that four 16-team conferences and a breakaway from the NCAA would lead to an implementation of a sort of playoff system. Basically' date=' the conference championship games would act as quarterfinals, with the 4 conference winners moving on to a Final Four. But it would still be far from ideal, IMO. First, only 64 of 120 Division IA teams would ever be eligible. Your Boise States, Utah's and TCU's would still be left out....even more so than now. Second, I'd say more often than not you won't have the Top 8 teams among the 64 competing either. Especially if one conference has two or three Top 10 ranked teams while another doesn't have a single one. In this scenario, the rankings would be irrelevant and it would be all about your conference record.[/quote']

I remember Bobby Knight proposing that very scenario some years ago.

[Birds of B'more]

Back to the MWC, if they add Colorado and Boise State, and don't lose Utah and TCU, they should be able to garner the coveted automatic bid.

Fun stuff, but it makes my head spin.

-Don

I just read a Tweet by SI's Stewart Mandel that made me go "duh!" If the Big 12 dissolves, then the MWC will get the automatic bid whether it adds Boise, the Big 12 leftovers, or does nothing at all. The rules say a conference can gain automatic qualification status if it finishes among the Top 6 conferences in 3 categories over a 5-year period. Right now, the MWC meets 2 of them. But if there is no Big 12, then that automatically boosts them into the Top 6 in the third category too, and they're in. Then they can look at adding teams that make more sense for them financially (i.e. large TV markets) instead of focusing solely on who can get them AQ status in the BCS. That's probably why they tabled the invite to Boise St today and instead are going to sit back and see what happens. Boise is only somewhere around the #100 TV market in the country....so other than their football program, they bring nothing to a conference looking to grow its revenues.

[Birds of B'more]

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1092612

A source close to the Nebraska Board of Regents told Orangebloods.com the regents met informally Wednesday and have agreed to move to the Big Ten and that a formal announcement Nebraska is leaving will come Friday.

Sources close to Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech have suggested to Orangebloods.com over the last week that if Nebraska leaves, the Big 12 can't be saved.

A Fox television report out of Ohio said Nebraska now has an invitation from the Big Ten.

If this is true, expect it to be the first of many dominoes.

And for Terps fans, check out this tidbit later in the article.

Joe Schad of ESPN reported Wednesday that the Big Ten list of interest for expansion goes like this: 1) Notre Dame 2) Nebraska 3) Rutgers and/or Maryland.

[Greg Pappas]

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1092612

If this is true' date=' expect it to be the first of many dominoes.

And for Terps fans, check out this tidbit later in the article.[/quote']

VERY interesting stuff. I've spent more time than I should thinking this whole thing out.

[Orioles West]

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1092612

If this is true' date=' expect it to be the first of many dominoes.

And for Terps fans, check out this tidbit later in the article.[/quote']

Even though I've lived in Big 12 country a long time, I still follow the Terps too. Maryland should jump all over a Big 10 offer since the SEC is looking to grab some ACC teams.

As to the Big 12, with Nebraska's decision, it is game over for the conference.

Colorado is now at the mercy of the Pac-10's decision between the Buffs and Baylor.

I think if Iowa ST, Kansas, Colorado and K-State join the MWC, it could could be fun, but not big money. I wonder if Mizzou got an 'official' Big Ten invite yet?

-Don

[Birds of B'more]

Even though I've lived in Big 12 country a long time, I still follow the Terps too. Maryland should jump all over a Big 10 offer since the SEC is looking to grab some ACC teams.

As to the Big 12, with Nebraska's decision, it is game over for the conference.

Colorado is now at the mercy of the Pac-10's decision between the Buffs and Baylor.

I think if Iowa ST, Kansas, Colorado and K-State join the MWC, it could could be fun, but not big money. I wonder if Mizzou got an 'official' Big Ten invite yet?

-Don

Re: Terps.....I would have said no way a while ago, but now, you're right. With the Texas/Okla schools apparently off the board, the SEC will look at the ACC....namely FSU, VT and maybe Miami too. And if that's the case, the Terps would be very wise to take a Big Ten offer, if extended, and not look back. I'm still not enthralled with competing in the Big Ten, but the money and stability are just too much better for the long term. Plus, since I get the BTN out here, I'd get to watch them a lot more on TV than I do now.

I think Colorado may still have a chance at the Pac-10. They are definitely the first choice over Baylor for the Pac 10. Plus, I keep hearing that Texas A&M prefers the SEC to the Pac 10, and if they are willing to split from Texas, then that leaves room for both Baylor and Colorado in a Pac-10 East.

[Birds of B'more]

BTW, it was on his Twitter account that Joe Schad of ESPN made the comment about the Terps being on the Big 10's list. I haven't seen it anywhere on ESPN.com.

[Orioles West]

BTW' date=' it was on his Twitter account that Joe Schad of ESPN made the comment about the Terps being on the Big 10's list. I haven't seen it anywhere on ESPN.com.

I hope it is true for Maryland, especially since it seems certain the SEC will raid the ACC.

Is Texas A&M assuming some love from the SEC? The only rumors of SEC expansion I've heard all relate to ACC teams.

I can't believe I bought into Tom Osborne's talk of wanting the Big 12 to succeed just a week or so ago. A very sincere smoke screen indeed.

[Majin Buu]

I don't know. I think Maryland leaves only if they can take the states of N.C. and Virginia with them. Rutgers? Mizzou has got to be in a world of hurt right now. I still think there are going to be some major surprises before this is all done. I find it hard to believe that the SEC and ACC are going to sit by and let the Big Ten+2 and the Pac 10 gobble up all the major TV markets.

[hoosiers]

Looks like the Big 12 will fall apart. As I've posted all along, Notre Dame is the big prize and the dominoes may be falling that way.

Looking good so far for the B10 with Nebraska. Most speculation is the B10 going to 16, but 14 might be better if it is Missou and Nebraska. Rounding out to 16 puts some interesting names on the table. I would prefer Maryland and breaking into that cable market in a big way to Syracuse or Rutgers. Not sure of the last team.

[Sports Guy]

What is going to happen with the ACC at this point? Are they going to be swallowed up or are they going to swallow up a lot of the big East?