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Bill James' 2013 Projections


luismatos4prez

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I'll format this so it's easy to see what he's saying about each guy.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Player[/td]

[td]2012 Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS[/td]

[td]2013 BJ Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Adam Jones[/td]

[td].334/.505/.839[/td]

[td].329/.478/.807[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Matt Wieters[/td]

[td].329/.435/.764[/td]

[td].341/.448/.789[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]JJ Hardy[/td]

[td].282/.389/.671[/td]

[td].306/.422/.728[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Chris Davis[/td]

[td].326/.501/.827[/td]

[td].340/.532/.872[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Markakis[/td]

[td].363/.471/.834[/td]

[td].369/.457/.826[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Manny Machado[/td]

[td].294/.445/.739[/td]

[td].315/.419/.734[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nolan Reimold[/td]

[td].333/.627/.960[/td]

[td].340/.456/.796[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Mark Reynolds[/td]

[td].335/.429/.763[/td]

[td].336/.463/.799[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Ryan Flaherty[/td]

[td].258/.359/.617[/td]

[td].300.415/.715[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nate McLouth[/td]

[td]..342/.435/.777[/td]

[td].326/.400/.726[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

Notes:

- Slash Line is OBP/SLG/OPS

- Reimold's projection is right in line with his total career numbers

- I only included McLouth's Orioles numbers

- BRob not included. Bill James always predicts him to have a big comeback year. It's a flaw in his system, imo

I find these projections very reasonable. I like what it does with Machado, Flaherty, McLouth, and Reimold. Tough guys to predict. He has AJ regressing, which I strongly disagree with, because nothing he did last season was unsustainable.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Pitcher[/td]

[td]2012 ERA[/td]

[td]2013 BJ ERA[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jason Hammel[/td]

[td]3.43[/td]

[td]4.30[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td]

[td]4.02[/td]

[td]3.92[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jake Arrieta (RP)[/td]

[td]6.20[/td]

[td]4.25[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jim Johnson[/td]

[td]2.49[/td]

[td]3.34[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Darren O'Day[/td]

[td]2.28[/td]

[td]2.71[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Chris Tillman[/td]

[td]2.93[/td]

[td]4.31[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Miguel Gonzalez[/td]

[td]3.25[/td]

[td]3.67[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Pedro Strop[/td]

[td]2.44[/td]

[td]3.63[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Luis Ayals[/td]

[td]2.64[/td]

[td]3.95[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Zach Britton[/td]

[td]5.07[/td]

[td]4.08[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Tommy Hunter (RP)[/td]

[td]5.45[/td]

[td]4.50[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brian Matusz (mostly RP)[/td]

[td]4.87[/td]

[td]4.70[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

He's pessimistic about Hammel, JJ, Strop, and Ayala. With good reason I think.

I disagree with his projections on Hunter and Matusz. I think those two will excel in the pen, and I'm more optimistic about Tillman than he is.

I'm surprised to see how optimistic he is on Gonzo. He loves O'Day, and he thinks Britton will improve.

My conclusions: We would be wise to sell high on Hammel, and perhaps Strop and JJ as well.

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Seem pretty darn optimistic to me, especially with Davis.

Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.

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He's certainly very bullish on Chris Davis. I wonder what the reasoning is or the statistical reason.

I can't see any statistical evidence to back it up, just the "light switch" theory.

Not saying it couldn't happen, but I would bet that an .872 OPS is very unlikely.

Wouldn't be complaining if it happened though, that is for sure.

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Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.

Good info, I will give you that.

I just need way more of a track record to predict he turns into an offensive force like that, almost overnight.

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