Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[RavensNOsGuy]

He is being saved for the playoffs when we face the Yankees. They were going on and on this morning on the Fan about not pitching him this weekend because we wouldn’t want him to face the Yankees too many times. Had to laugh at that one. He’s your ace. 

[bpilktree]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Burnes SO9 rate has been declining the past four seasons and I would not want to lock him up long term . From 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings to 8.4 this season. I'd go with three years even if you have up the AAV.

If a team wants to sign him for 6 seasons then I'd move on and take the comp pick.

He has said he is trying to pitch more and more to contact so the lower strikeouts is probably more to his pitching style change then anything else for most part.  

[Malike]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  The Ks are lacking and, as you said, he’s not throwing enough innings. He’s giving up a few too many homers too.

Hes been great but I honestly don’t expect him to go out and pitch 7-8 innings or 1 run or less baseball.

Im always hoping he pitches into the seventh and gives up 3 runs or less.

There are 3 pitchers in all of baseball ahead of him in innings pitched and one of them is by 2 innings, Logan Webb and he has 20 starts to Burnes' 19. How many guys can you expect to pitch into the 7th and 8th and give up 1 run or less? None is probably the correct answer.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Burnes is the next guy…he should get a higher AAV if he continues to pitch well this year and stays healthy.

6-7 years and 38-40M is my prediction.

I’d say $36 mm AAV for Burnes is in effect more than Cole got, since Cole’s age 28-29 seasons figured to be the most valuable of the 9.   In other words, let’s say you value Cole’s 9 upcoming seasons like this:  $44, $42, $40, $38, $36, $34, $32, $30, $28 (I’d argue the expected downward curve is probably steeper than that).   That averages out to $36 mm/yr in expected value so that’s what they paid him.  But if you cut out the two youngest seasons (that the Burnes contract won’t have), that leaves 7/$238.  So 7/$252 for Burnes effectively values his age 30-36 seasons higher than Cole’s.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, RavensNOsGuy said:

He is being saved for the playoffs when we face the Yankees. They were going on and on this morning on the Fan about not pitching him this weekend because we wouldn’t want him to face the Yankees too many times. Had to laugh at that one. He’s your ace. 

Brilliant analysis from The Fan as usual.

The Orioles the past couple years usually don't skip the fifth starter's turn when there's an off day. It had nothing to do with not wanting to expose Burnes to the Yankees. I remember under Buck that would happen, but it's not under the current regime.

[Just Regular]

I think the choices this week laying him up for the All-Star start are in part Elias' Walltimore long woo of "any good free agent pitcher".

We're a place to help Jordan Lyles, Kyle Gibson and Corbin Burnes maximize life experience and income.

Make it so pretty even the good ones will take 1-year deals.

[bpilktree]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

There are 3 pitchers in all of baseball ahead of him in innings pitched and one of them is by 2 innings, Logan Webb and he has 20 starts to Burnes' 19. How many guys can you expect to pitch into the 7th and 8th and give up 1 run or less? None is probably the correct answer.

Yeah anything over 7 innings is rare.  Wheeler, Skubal, Sale and Burns have a combined 1 out in the 8th inning or later from all 4.  

[Just Regular]

Remember when Don Sutton was a wimp because he was only a 7-inning pitcher.    Fun times.

[Malike]

21 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Brilliant analysis from The Fan as usual.

The Orioles the past couple years usually don't skip the fifth starter's turn when there's an off day. It had nothing to do with not wanting to expose Burnes to the Yankees. I remember under Buck that would happen, but it's not under the current regime.

I find it interesting that we've not faced Stroman one time this year and won't this weekend, either.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

If we win a World Series this year there will be some increased pressure to bring Burnes back. If Burns’s gets a mega deal 300+M then I certainly understand letting him walk but if it’s say 6 or less years less than 225M then with our minimum payroll we should be in on that imo 

I think it’s the other way around. If you win a WS it’s mission accomplished, no pressure to push all the chips in.

[Osornot]

Next year we have Grayson.... no matter how many trade deadline discussions we have we are not getting someone like Skubal or any other "pie in the sky" trade unless Elias does something stupid.   Povich, McDermott, etc. give me little confidence in becoming anything more than mid-rotation or less.  

I guess this rant only leads to one conclusion - we are going to have the buy some of the arms. We have one of the most exciting, young teams in a long time.  It would be a darn shame to waste it.  Whether we do it with Burnes or not is the question. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say $36 mm AAV for Burnes is in effect more than Cole got, since Cole’s age 28-29 seasons figured to be the most valuable of the 9.   In other words, let’s say you value Cole’s 9 upcoming seasons like this:  $44, $42, $40, $38, $36, $34, $32, $30, $28 (I’d argue the expected downward curve is probably steeper than that).   That averages out to $36 mm/yr in expected value so that’s what they paid him.  But if you cut out the two youngest seasons (that the Burnes contract won’t have), that leaves 7/$238.  So 7/$252 for Burnes effectively values his age 30-36 seasons higher than Cole’s.

That’s not really a good argument and certainly not how Burnes and his agent will see it.

 

[Aristotelian]

I only watched a couple innings but I believe he hit 98 which was interesting.

[Rbiggs2525]

Not sure if it was posted here but when you look at the top paid pitchers in 2024 it looks bad. Scherzer, Verlander, Strasburg, Cole, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Degromm, and Snell. Patrick Corbin is making 20 million this year. Pitching contracts do not really age well. That being said I would offer Burnes a fair 5 year deal between 175-200 million dollars.

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Malike said:

There are 3 pitchers in all of baseball ahead of him in innings pitched and one of them is by 2 innings, Logan Webb and he has 20 starts to Burnes' 19. How many guys can you expect to pitch into the 7th and 8th and give up 1 run or less? None is probably the correct answer.

 When I say expect, I don’t literally mean that’s what they are going to do.

I mean I would have confidence that in any given start, that’s what they will do. 
 

I don’t have that same level of confidence in Burnes. I see him as just under that threshold.