Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[psagawa]

The O's may or may not be willing to bid aggressively for Corbin Burnes this off season, but after seeing Snell and Montgomery go to spring training unsigned last winter, what will the market be? Based on performance, Burnes is superior to all but a handful of starters around MLB but many of the high revenue teams do not look to be serious bidders. The Mets have the highest payroll and Cohen has shown himself willing to spend but the team is only #10 by revenue and has shown signs of backing away from the open checkbook strategy. The Yanks are number 2 but with Cole, Rondon, Cortez, and Stroman already on the books for 2025 plus the imperative of signing Soto, I doubt they would be up for a $40-50M 8 year deal for Burnes. Houston is the third highest payroll but #6 in revenue plus has $ committed to Verlander, Valdez, McCullers, and Javier (with Blanco a surprise bargain). The Phillies look set in their rotation, as do the Braves - wouldn't expect either to be bidding for Burnes. The Dodgers will be getting a ton of pitching back next year - Ohtani, Buehler, May, Yamamoto, etc. - so they may need pitching now but probably won't next winter. The Cubs don't look like buyers to me, nor do the Jays, Rangers, or Giants. Maybe the Red Sox or Cardinals step up?

If the market is not robust this winter, perhaps Burnes would be willing to sign a shorter deal that could be more palatable to the O's who have a cheap position player line up locked up for a few years or even a longer, more team friendly contract. Thoughts?

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

I personally don’t think he gets anywhere close to that.  

[Malike]

Nobody.

[G54377]

He's not getting 400. Given the landscape of risk adverse GMs with pitchers contracts, I'm not even sure he gets 300. 6/250 or something like that is about as much as I could see.

[Sports Guy]

I doubt he even gets 300 million 

[Too Tall]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I doubt he even gets 300 million 

I'll go one step further. IMO, the landscape for starters' contracts (even really good ones) in their 30's is changing - particularly the years. He'll be lucky to get a 100 mil. contract for 3 years with perhaps a fourth year option. Having Boras as an agent is not going to help. I don't think Snell and Montgomery was just a one time event. I think the Orioles are in a good place to play in that arena if my supposition is close to accurate. We shall see.

[accinfo]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I doubt he even gets 300 million 

Yes I agree with this.  He is going to get above $40 million per year but it won’t be longer than 5 or 6 years.

[Say O!]

Zack Wheeler got contract extension of 3yr/$126M for $42M AAV.  That’s probably the ceiling for Burnes. 

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I doubt he even gets 300 million 

What does it take 6 x 30?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What does it take 6 x 30?

I’d be surprised if that’s all he got

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Has he had TJ yet?

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

Has he had TJ yet?

Did Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What does it take 6 x 30?

I’m on record: 7/$252 mm, $36 mm AAV.  Cole got that AAV for 9 years, when he was two years younger than Burnes will be as a FA.  So subtract the two extra years.  

[Hank Scorpio]

I don’t see him in an O’s uni in 2025.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m on record: 7/$252 mm, $36 mm AAV.  Cole got that AAV for 9 years, when he was two years younger than Burnes will be as a FA.  So subtract the two extra years.  

He’s the next guy up..he will get a higher AAV even if it’s less years…assuming he pitches well in the second half.

I’ll say 6 or 7 years for 38-40M a year and probably have an opt out after 2 or 3 years.